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UdeA astronomy professor Ignacio Ferrín says Comet Catalina, also known as C/2013 US10, could be on its path toward disintegration. Astronomers around the world are waiting to learn the true fate of the comet.

Photo of Comet C/2013 US10 (Catalina) captured by the British amateur astronomer Martin Mobberley.

The image above shows what Comet C/2013 US10 looks like currently. Although it shows no signs of disintegration its fate may be quite different than expected. Ignacio Ferrín, an astronomy professor at Universidad de Antioquia says “the comet’s fate remains uncertain”.

In recent days Catalina’s brightness has dropped substantially on two occasions.   Although the comet disintegration poses no threat to Earth, such events allow scientists to better understand cometary science.

C/2013 US10, a predominantly green comet, is a healthy, strong, robust, and active comet. Its green color comes from the production of cyanogen (CN) and diatomic carbon (C2), which are gases that glow green when illuminated by the sunlight in the near-vacuum of space.

The comet exhibited a first decrease in brightness that lasted 153 days followed by a revival of its activity, and then a second 206-day decrease occurred, for a total of 359 days (around one year) of decline in brightness, which is unusual for a comet. “As the comet approaches the Sun it grows warmer and some of the ice starts to melt streaming away into space. Under normal conditions, the comet temperature increases gradually. The strange thing is that the temperature remains stable for such a long time, which suggests that the comet may have run out of icy “fuel”, Ferrín said.

Something similar occurred in 2013 when Comet ISON disintegrated following a 121-day brightness reduction. “Catalina's health is probably far worse than Comet ISON's,” Ferrín said.

According to Ferrín the probability that the comet will disintegrate is close to 92 percent. The remaining 8 percent, accounts for the probability that the comet will survive. 

This research paper entitled "The Impending Demise of Comet C/2013 US10 (Catalina)" authored by Professor Ignacio Ferrín, has been submitted for publication in a world-class scientific journal and is currently under review by international evaluators.

The true fate of Comet C/2013 US10 will be known after passing through perihelion on November 15. “What we do know is that many amateur and professional astronomers throughout the world will point their telescopes towards Catalina to learn about the fate of the comet,” says Ferrín.

The renowned British amateur astronomer Martin Mobberley published a series of images of Comet C/2013 US10. Click here to see the photos.

Professor Ignacio Ferrín is a member of the Computational Physics and Astrophysics Group (FACOM) at the UdeA Institute of Physics.  In 2013, astronomer and FACOM’s member Jorge Zuluaga became the first scientist to reconstruct the orbit of the Chelyabinsk meteor. Through their calculations, Zuluaga and Ferrín concluded that the Chelyabinsk meteorite is from the Apollo class of asteroids, a group of asteroids situated in the Main Asteroid Belt between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. That same year, Ferrín predicted the disintegration of Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON).

The importance of cometary science according to Professor Ignacio Ferrín

Comets have both fascinated and frightened people throughout history as they have been associated with misfortunes and calamities – disease, war, pestilence, and the fall or death of kings -.  Today, such misconceptions have been discarded by science. However, new questions have arisen: How did life arise on Earth? Where did Earth’s water come from? The answers to such questions may lie in comets.

Panspermia theory suggests that comets may have brought primitive organic molecules responsible for life on Earth. The spectroscopic analysis of these enigmatic celestial objects indicates that comets are mainly made up from water. Then, assuming that millions of these objects collided into Earth during the formation of the Solar System, it may have been possible that Earth’s oceans originated from comets.  Therefore, there is a real possibility that the human body contains cometary molecules.

But comets may also pose a threat to terrestrial life. The Earth has always been bombarded by objects from outer space. In 2013, a meteor hit the Russian Chelyabinsk region injuring more than a thousand people and causing significant property damage. If the object had hit the surface at a slightly different time of day, it could have hit other parts of Europe killing hundreds.      

In June 1908, a hypothetical meteor exploded over the Tunguska region of Siberia, knocking down and burning thousands of trees over an area of approximately 30 km. Again, if its orbital path had been delayed by some two hours, the object could have hit Stockholm killing all of its inhabitants.